UNS — Covid-19 still poses a real danger and threat despite the government’s efforts to boost vaccination progress for the community. SARS-CoV-2 that continues to mutate raises the concern on the reduced effectiveness of the existing vaccines in preventing new variants of Covid-19, such as Alpha, Delta, and Omicron.
This concern raises skepticism and speculation over the effectiveness of the vaccination and when the pandemic will end. According to the Clinical Pathology Specialist Universitas Sebelas Maret (UNS) Surakarta Hospital, dr. Tonang Dwi Ardyanto, Sp.PK(K), Ph.D., FISQua, vaccines are still beneficial in preventing Covid-19 infection. Although the possibility of infection in people with full vaccination is never zero, vaccination is proved to reduce the severity and death rate.
“In the clinical test, the target was to prevent symptoms. It was not tested whether it could prevent infection. After one year or more, there will be data to be analyzed,” dr. Tonang wrote on Sunday (6/2/2022).
dr. Tonang, who often shared information around Covid-19 through social media, created a simple simulation on the percentage of infection on vaccinated and unvaccinated people. The uns.ac.id received a permit to upload this simulation that dr. Tonang separated into three parts.
Covid-19 Vaccination in Indonesia
The Indonesian government keeps boosting the vaccination process using the existing vaccines amid the spread of the Omicron variant. President Joko Widodo also issued the booster vaccination policy on 12 January 2022 for 18 years old and older who have received full vaccination at least in the last six months.
The data from 1 January to 4 February 2022 recorded cumulative new cases of 183,974. dr. Tonang simulated that the real number of new cases is around ten times the recorded cases, therefore reaching a total cumulative case of 1,839,740. The number of people receiving full vaccination (48% or 130,462,639 people) and those who received the first shot (68% or 186,205,028 people) was included in the simulation. Breakthrough Infection or B-Infection rate is used to reflect the infection that occurred in vaccinated people.
“The first simulation is all new cases are in vaccinated people with at least first shot; then the B-infection rate is 0.99 percent,” dr. Tonang explained.
In the second simulation, if the new cases are proportional, 68%, or 13 out of 18 infections occurred in vaccinated people and 32%, or 5 out of 18 cases occurred in unvaccinated people. The B-Infection rate for the second simulation is 0.68%. “The third simulation, if the cases are equally distributed, each nine of 18 cases in vaccinated and unvaccinated people, then the B-Infection rate is 0.49%,” he explained. In contrast, the report from other countries identified more cases in unvaccinated groups. “If that also occurs in Indonesia, then the B-Infection rate will be even lower,” he added.
Through the three simulations, in the most pessimistic condition, around 99% of vaccinated people could avoid Covid-19 infection. Therefore, reducing all negative impacts of Covid-19 infection and the spread of the new Coronavirus disease. “Thus, it meets the objective of vaccination, to protect oneself and others,” dr. Tonang stated.
From the first simulation, dr. Tonang stated that the B-Infection rate is normal and appropriate to be concluded that vaccination has a good ability in preventing Covid-19 infection. Even if the real cases are 30 times larger than the recorded cases, the B-infection rate will still stand around 2.96%. It is true that there is a concern over the representativeness of the national reports because there is a gap in testing capacity all over Indonesia regions. For example, a simulation on data from Jakarta will generate a B-Infection rate of 10.01% in the first simulation alone.
“If 90% or higher is considered insignificant, that would be incorrect. There are many factors that complement one another, especially implementing health protocols and vaccinations. But there are times when we did the protocols less strict. That is when vaccination takes a role in the long-term,” dr. Tonang explained.
dr. Tonang stated that we need to be grateful if the vaccinated people are prevented from new infections. For the small number of people who got infected after vaccination, he reminded them to continue to be aware even after receiving vaccines.
“The requirement stays the same, strict protocols, accelerate vaccination until we are sure that we could control the pandemic,” he concluded. Humas UNS
Reporter: Y.C.A. Sanjaya
Editor: Dwi Hastuti