UNS — The president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has announced a military operation on Ukraine from Thursday (24/2/2022). The decision was taken after Putin received a permit from the Upper House of the Russian Parliament to mobilize its military personnel to the ex-Soviet Union country. Air raid sirens could be heard throughout Kyiv in response to missiles launched by Russia that entered Ukraine’s airspace.
The US president, Joe Biden, held a special meeting with G7 members and determined new sanctions against Russia as the consequences of their military operation on Ukraine. The operation also yields harsh responses from many people, including Universitas Sebelas Maret (UNS) Surakarta international political analyst, Ign. Agung Satyawan, Ph.D. In an interview with uns.ac.id on Thursday (24/2/2022), Agung Satyawan, Ph.D., regrets Russia’s military operation against Ukraine. He stated that the attack was the result of the failed peace dialogue.
“It is deplorable, although the signs of growing ready-for-combat Russian military personnel in Ukraine border has been long reported by the West intelligence. Russia calls this a ‘special military operation,’ and this military action will claim victims and damage public facilities,” he mentioned.
Agung Satyawan, Ph.D., stated that the operation was likely launched because of the increasing number of ex-Warsaw Pact members that joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European Union. This condition pushes Russia to give its best efforts in keeping the ex-Soviet Union states together and maintain their support for the country. Unfortunately, Ukraine, one of the states, has openly shown its tendency toward the west and shared its willingness to join NATO. According to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine needs a referendum from Ukrainians and approval from NATO members to join NATO. However, Ukraine’s failed attempt to join NATO did not stop Putin from launching a military operation in Ukraine and boldly asking Ukraine’s military to stop resisting his military operation.
Russia-Ukraine Escalation
Russia’s attack on Ukraine is the new chapter of a long unfriendly relationship between the two countries after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Before this year’s escalation, two easternmost regions in Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, had unilaterally declared their independence and received support from Putin. Agung Satyawan, Ph.D., explained that these two regions and other regions on the Ukraine border, including the Crimean peninsula, are the entry point for Russian troops to Ukraine. The regions are inhabited by Russian people who support Russia and want to separate from Ukraine, another justification for Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. Additionally, Donetsk and Luhansk are the center of the steel industry and strategic regions to push Ukraine back into submission to Russia.
“Since the failure of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became an independent country. (However), its border always triggers a conflict because many of its inhabitants are of Russian ethnicity. They want to be free from Ukraine, and the area is vulnerable to the separatist movement. Unilaterally, these regions conduct a referendum and show that they want to separate from Ukraine. Ukraine’s position is not an issue for Russia as long as its government submits to Russia,” Agung Satyawan, Ph.D., explained.
He added that the probability of Russia launching a full-scale military attack is a feasible scenario because the country has installed a large number of personnel and military installations on Ukraine’s borders. Agung Satyawan, Ph.D., explained that Ukraine is vulnerable, and NATO military assistance is not viable since Ukraine is not yet registered as a NATO member. The worst scenario yet is NATO accepting Ukraine’s proposal to join NATO, which is feared to trigger the third world war. “(But) hopefully it does not happen,” he added.
Solution for Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Agung Satyawan, Ph.D., also shared several “difficult” solutions that could be taken to de-escalate the tension between the two nations. First, he hoped for pressure from the United Nations (UN) Security Council on Russia, but it is pretty tricky, according to him, because Russia is a fixed member of the UN Security Council and could use its veto right.
“Economic embargo to force Russia to retract its troops. This option is less effective because Russia is a big country with strong economic power to survive embargo from the west,” he stated.
The available option is through the UN General Assembly to gather world opinion that Russia’s action contradicts international law. Gathering opinions through social media, according to him, will only cause a cyberwar between those supporting and against Russia’s action. He also considered that Indonesia could contribute to de-escalating the tension because its constitution provides a solid reason to maintain world peace. Indonesia is also on a good term with Russia and Ukraine, besides acting as the President of G20 from 1 December 2021.
“Indonesia is the largest nation in ASEAN and ASEAN has a partnership with Russia, thus ASEAN card can be used by Indonesia. Based on this potential, Indonesia needs to conduct super active diplomacy to reduce the tension between Russia and Ukraine,” he concluded. Humas UNS
Reporter: Y.C.A. Sanjaya
Editor: Dwi Hastuti
